Poker Strategy Info And Source:
In this hand we flop two pair but the flop checks through and the turn brings a 4 straight. On the river we fill up but have the bottom boat and are put in a bad spot when shoved on.
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If he's betting the turn, he should be doing it to buy information.
The caller has the worst full house. That means that to call and win, he has to believe the opponent would move in with a queen or worse. Why would someone move in with a queen when they can just call – they are hoping a full will fold or maybe another queen? No good reason to do that. I think this player kept coming back to the idea that the preflop raiser could not have AA or KK or JJ because he checked the flop. Now I agree that I would usually bet all those hands, but the fact that a person checked the flop is not nearly as relevant as the fact that they raised all in huge on the river. The big bet is the key piece of information and deserves the most consideration. If someone bets $800 on the river and you think they would only do that with a full house, you should not convince yourself otherwise because they did not bet $40 on the flop.
Is this a call at 1/3 or any low stakes
This might be a call at higher stakes much higher stakes because they’re capable of those kind of plays with blockers but at low stakes no one turns a queen into a bluff here so it’s definitely a full house and obviously you’re beat by every other full house
Great analysis here. Thanks.
I'm probably making a crying call here. Too easy to outguess yourself and a boat is gotta be good a fair amount of the time. Since your river bet wasn't that big, it would seem to make it a bit more likely an aggressive villain would try to steal, putting you on a straight
Bart you have a very methodical approach to hand problem solving. When you play live poker and are at the table do you have a checklist of factors you always run through on every street or does it come automatically to you? In other words do you just go into each situation with a clear mind and go with the flow?
This hand show the importance of understanding relative hand strength and thinking about, what your opponents could have. 54 or AA would be strong hands on K54, because its very unlikely, someone has K5 or K4. But on KJT AA or JT are not very strong hands, because its perfectly reasonable for the other players to have KJ or KT, and someone could easily have flopped a straight with AQ or Q9s. So Hero and Villain both checking the flop makes complete sense.
What makes no sense is Hero leading the turn, when the ace hit, because now his hand is like literally dead. Now any other broadway hand and all the big pocket pairs beat him, so this lead is simply setting money on fire. On the flop JT could be played as a check-call, but on the turn its a very clear check-fold.
On the river JT become a value bet, because there are more possible combos of QX, which might call, than there are of better boats. But when Hero get raised, he have a pretty easy bet-fold, because this is the worst hand, he can bet for value, and his opponent is never raising worse hands for value either.
Bert advocate exploitative poker, and from an exploitative standpoint its an extremely easy fold, because its so difficult to come up with reasonable bluffs, and at lower stakes people dont bluffraise the river as often, as they theoretically should. But even from game theory its a clear fold, since its definitly among the worst 50% of hands, which Hero bet on the river.