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Weekly Poker Hand #342: Ever since Tom Dwan has returned to playing on TV there has been a lot of discussion about the differences between ‘Old’ Tom and the ‘New’ Tom.
The ‘Old’ Tom would have taken a completely different line on the river here but he does make an incredibly correct read on Rick Salomon.
Would you have ever checked behind on the river in Tom’s spot? Unreal! When I first heard about this hand my response was “Tom Dwan did what?!”
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Source: YouTube
What would YOU do with A♠ Q♣ on the river?
Your Stack (HJ): $353,000
Their Stack (BB): $737,000
Pot: $203,000
Board: T♦ Q♦ T♥ 2♦ T♣
Salomon checks
A) Check
B) Bet $60,000
C) Bet $140,000
D) Bet $353,000 (all in)
I have to think I'm going to check. I don't think that small bet is a winning play as Salomon could shove and I'm left with a terrible decision an probably have to fold. If I bet large or shove, I'm only going to get called by better so that risks money for no reward – I get beat by better or I don't make any extra. I don't think that Rick would feel like the way I have played this that I have the 10s in my hand. He could reasonably be holding an offsuit broadway draw containing the 10s. So my answer is A) Check.
I would say no one takes Rick's line with a ten, but that's exactly the reason he could do it with a ten. I've seen a lot of players get owned because their opponent knows they read a lot into betting patterns. I also don't think anyone takes Rick's line with a flush. So I think Rick's range is highly polarized to hands that beat Dwan or air and Dwan's check is fine. Dwan's range must look like a full house to Rick that will bet river for value for him to make that check, which it is, but I dont think any missed draws or even a flush is going to bet that river, so I think the check is not so great for that reason. A value bet that Dwan might raise some percentage of the time with KK or AA and call with with a Q would be better, IMO. If Rick does take that line, he is playing his quads face up, but can you ever play quads face up? I don't think so, they're just so unlikely. I think Rick shows here he severely underestimates Dwan's abilities – I would not be suprised to see Dwan own him in a later hand.
This is where you count your rebuy that you have left for your game.
This guy overlooks all the live reads scenarios, I think you can do better then that Jonathan.
I think Tom checked behind.
Bet 60K
The check raise cost Rick a ton of equity. He could’ve built a huge pot with every street with the 2 opponents he had crushed. He gave up to much information too early. He showed he doesn’t want to be outplayed on future streets. IMO,Rick should have bet every street. He’s never getting blown off his hand.very interesting dynamics. The meta game.
Just watched this now. If Dwan is checking river there (which is fine since very little you beat can call), how could he ever credibly bet in that spot? What if Tom has KJ no flush and thinks Solomon could have JJ, 99 or even maybe even AJ hearts. That would make his betting range on that board exactly a 10 and nothing else. There must be some frequency he leads 50k-60k and calls down a min raise but folds to a bigger raise, no?
Check or bet tiny, a bet here should only be used to induce a bluff from Rick, so betting tiny to induce a spaz would be perfect – a larger bet achieves very little as what are you targeting with your bet? is 33- 99 going to call?