10 thoughts on “Optimal Poker Bet Sizing Strategy (AVOID THIS MISTAKE!!)”

1. What bet sizing do you normally use here? Also, check out my latest video on how much money poker players actually make: https://youtu.be/dPDDQ3p-6ng

2. Hey, Nathan! What do you think about PS policy update (i.e. reg tables opened capped at only 4 tables!)? Just started ultimately winning huge due to your MSS book and oops 🙁
   Can you please advise some other Poker Rooms to play with no such restrictions and beatable field?

3. Sorry Nathan, I understand the lesson is about optimal bet sizing strategy but this one video here reminded of one you have posted before where Hero had 66 and Fulled the Flop of Sixes. Then having this Full House, in that particular video, Hero decides to fold to a Shove-River-Bet. Quite different video because on that particular case both Hero and Villain were real deep stacked. Which is not the case of this video hero.
   I also read in Nathan's blog that we should not care very much about GTO at the micros (2 NL and 5NL mostly), and I agree with him, however, when I face real difficult spots like this one here where Hero Fulled in the Turn and Villain had Straight Flush.
   How much a Full House is worth (in the long run, considering River Bets specifically) if the Full House is not the best hand? In this case a Full House has a value of zero, nothing.
   Why do I put money in the pot in poker? Specially in River Bets:
   A) When I feel I have the best hand and will be paid for a worst hand.
   B) When I feel I have the second or third hand, or anything at all, but I can make a better range of hands fold.
   It is very insane, indeed, what I stated in the last comment that I could fold a Full House like that more than 70% of times in the same spot.
   However, I am just a fish learning my way very slow and I mean no offense to anyone, always with respect and desire good luck to everyone.
   In that Spot, I think, that Villain in the Big Blind would never go all in River with seconds and thirds hands. Which means, he would never shove a Trips, a Straight, A Flush in a hard connected and wetly board.
   How many bluffs does BB's Villain have after: MP raises preflop, MP C-bet Flop, C-bet Turn and C-bet River. How many bluffs MP has now? No bluffs at all. It is a very tricky and awful spot to check-raising all-in River with air or seconds or thirds hands.
   I know my fishy-NIT comments means nothing, because I am not a pro, but I like to go GTO in hard situations like this.
   First of all, perhaps the very small sample of hands of BB's Villain interfered with MP's decision. We got to be aware that with only a couple of hands we can not make the most profitable decision. I like to trust sample hands of more of 1 K of hands for decisions in the Flop, 3 K of Hands for decisions in the Turn and 5 K hands for decisions in the River. At least, but as a Fish Bit I believe that 20 K of Hands in the river is a good sample for decision making-River.
   Also, Nathan's comments about we try to be Tight Pre-flop, and opening a 22-66 from EP/MP/UTG weakens our range a lot in the long run. Because it is very simple to observe the nature of losses, in a logical field:
   A) MP Raises 22-66 and got a 3bet from the CO which is a TAG
   B) MP Raises 22-66 and got called from the CO which is a Whale
   C) MP Raises 22-66 and got called from the CO which is a Whale and Squeezed by the BB which is a Maniac
   D) MP Raises 22-66 and got called from the BTN who is a REG
   E) MP Raises 22-66 and got called from CO, BTN, SB and BB (Which I guess is what happened with our friend)
   And there are many others scenarios which might cause odd in the Hero in the long run. I guess 22-66 would not be playing good in any of these scenarios. So, there's no reason at all to worry and play this hands out of position. Some player might argue that there are another option:
   F) MP Raises 22-66 got a 3bet from the BTN who is a REG and decides to 4bet
   Really?If you have a 4bet range which includes 22-66, you are 4betting almost everything, so you will pass to suffer a lot of 5bets for pure value (because of the huge amount of dead money preflop) and 5bets-Shove which are also profitable. By exploring our adversaries we open a hole in our strategy and allow them to explore us as well.
   My proposition is being in position versus a FISH who plays worst than me. If I see nathanblackrain79 in the Big Blind and I am in the BTN with 22-66 I would fold this hand quite a few chunck of times prelfop. Because I know nathanblackrain79 would 3bet me for value and bluff and I will never know or could never call with these low pairs versus a REG, because nathanblackrain79 has much more ability postflop than I, so he will overplay me a lot. Just an example.
   But what I am trying to say is a Nathan's lesson which states that we must sit as Jesus for Fishes, something like that, we must play in position versus Fishes and Whales. If everybody folds and I have 55 in the BTN and there is a Fish in the SB and a Whale in the BB, I will raise this range of hands 100% of time, because versus these Fishes I have edge and advantage postflop, I have position and so on.
   We are not playing hands we play poker and either when we believe we are playing hands, we actually are playing our range of hands, and that Range of Hands must be balanced Preflop so he would be solid Postflop.
   Sorry about the long comment, I am very applied Fish, I hope someday I will become a regular, but I am far from it. Good luck at the tables to anyone!

   Regards;

4. I know how videos on this work. I was expecting 6-6. I actually would have checked the flop because i have showdown value, and getting 3 guys at this stake to fold isn't easy. Infact the only hands that fold are hands that i beat. Zero better hands are folding at this stake I probably pot turn, overbet the rive, call his shove, and then joke that the site is rigged in the comment box. I would fold 5-5 to the river shove at this level 0% of the time, even if I was deep stacked. Too many flushes in this range, i beat 2-2, and some fish might even shove 6x.

5. I folded 9,10s on the flop after check, check, my bet, raise and all-in. Board Qs,Js,2 and that after 4x bet preflop from CO… turn Q, the river hit Ks:(( The butt showed AT and SB Q,2… sick hand

   To this video, I thought the Villain had 6,5s, very strange play. I would probably fold here, called so many all-ins with 2,3 best boats and lost my stack.

   In the long run it debatable ether call or fold, but on NL2… maybe to so obvious shove is not a profitable call?! Maybe losing 1:3 isn’t so bad… but the question is in the long run, do we make money or loosing, the pots are different in each hand.

   Any thoughts:)?

6. Nathan, why do you call the Villain 2 (46/17/2) an Aggro-Fish?
   He looks like a weak tight fish (19-25 VPIP) PLUS the passively played rest of the 46 VPIP.
   What aggressive is here?
   Maybe it would be more precise to call this kind as Loose-Passive fish or simply a FISH?
   His AF = 2, not even 3 to treat his attacks like 2/3 bluff to 1/3 value from thin to thick.

   Explain your vision, please.

7. HAHAHAHA!!! No fish in the history off poker has ever folded a full house . lol im still laughing.

8. yea,get that pot up for str.flush lmao.

9. I’d like to play with Dale

10. It would rly stress me out if every player i coach only sends me bad beats instead of rly fundamental plays with minor mistakes.

    I mean yesterday i had 54s VS AA on a 544 Flop, Turn 9, we go all in, whats on the Turn A.
    He had 4% chance of winning, i would have played the hand always the same way because i would win 96% of the time.

    Dont sends bad beats to Rain and cry. This is poker and luck is involved you only win over time not in sigle Situations.

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