7 thoughts on “Computer-Perfect Play against Baccarat”

1. Hi can I ask you , where can I get baccarat simulator to simulate my system or play in long term.

2. Hello. I have seen a couple of your videos as I really like this topics. I am a professional poker player and have an academic background with a lot of statistics. In this video you prove what is the maximum amount of edge % / money you can earn per shoe but not per 100 hands you witness or any time you witness. Here is why: there is a chance that you can deliberly join a session when for example half of the deck has already gone through, and start counting from that point onwards. As you obviously know, approaching the end of the shoe is the time where each card deviating from the current average has the most impact. You would then assume a probability distribution for the first half of the deck ( the cards that you didn't see) which obviously is not "even" because you have to take in consideration the cards that you are seeing now ( a deviation on the second half of the shoe means it's more likely the first half was deviating the other way etc…) Which could infact make this strategy even a worst one vs watching the whole shoe per 100 hands or time. I'm just saying you didn't prove it. You can simplify this to say : the first X cards you didn't see ( I'm my example 1/2 of the shoe) are mathematically the same as a normal shoe but instead of cutting with 14 cards left you cut with 14+x. And you run the simulation. So: if you prove that any value above 14 is worst when taking in consideration the lesser time it gets to run the shoe to the end it is proven. Which probably means now that I am thinking of it that the answer is 14 is optimal even adjusting for the time ( without adjusting is trivial). But now this leaves me other consideration:you can stop counting at a certain time when it's optimal to stop and go to another shoe. So you will have a strategy: you start counting the first card, and you will stop when the EV of keep counting is below the EV of starting a new shoe (adjusted for the time it takes / hands left). ( This applies online for example). In this case it is for sure the case that per 100 hands witnessed or per time played it is a better strategy.

3. I am sorry for the previous long post ahah, one more thing though, I always hear, obviously, that in blackjack for example what the others strategy is doesn't impact your EV. However, if we want to be 100% true about it, it is not true and I haven't seen a single person say this. Here is why: when the other person is deviating from optimal play, standing or asking for a new card, their mistake in the strategy has (with almost 100% certainty) a correlation with the two cards they have faced up being high or low ( or if you want 3 cards adding the dealer). This means that they will ask for one more card or they will stand and not ask for extra card in a deck that is not correlated free, a deck that is not EV neutral, because 2 of the X cards the shoe has are slightly more times high or low in probability. This means that the edge at that point will deviate a tiny little bit because each card you ask or each card you don't ask (stand) makes an impact on the cards left, making the shoe end faster or slower ( with more hands played or less in probability) which in turn changes the edge because it was slightly favourable or not favourable before the card was asked or not asked.

4. I am not sure if I delivered my arguments properly, it's not my strong point. But I would be interested in speaking to you by other means if you want and discuss some of this and other stuff. I find these topics very interesting. Also i just bought the book, probably will not look into it a lot of hours but i had to buy it!

5. Hello sir is there a way to contact you over email? I have some questions that I would like about my observations on this game.

6. What's the logic behind offering players a banker 6 bonus bet….is a total of 6 more likely? How did the casinos come about this calculation?

7. I’m a pit boss, been in the industry about 20 years. Had some success counting blackjack. Recently I’ve been thinking about computer perfect blackjack play at online casinos. Another exploit that came to my attention recently is the casino I work at was offering bad beat baccarat. A young Asian couple were counting to beat nat 9 over nat 8 (pays 50:1). I’ve been looking for the system they used but haven’t had much luck. I’ve seen a few systems for beating similar bets, but not specifically nat 9over nat 8. Anyone have help to offer?

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