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The lesser payouts and vigs start to eat into you after a while. Even more so since you are not getting the better payouts from the 6 & 8.
I would be bored to tears playing that strategy.
Can you let us know how much each progression level is and how many levels there are?
This strategy came to me because I love craps, but I dislike losing on the come out rolls! That problem is solved here. The seven of course is the most frequent number to roll and the 4 and 10 and the 5 and 9 are the least frequent box numbers to roll. (You all know this). But I have found no better way to make a couple hundred bucks in a few hours.
The "Anything but 10 strategy" by WagerMeThis is Great and much more fun as are many of Jacobs strategy videos, but to low rollers, this Chicken Slims Chase and Lay is pretty safe.
Thanks Jacob for making the video!
If anyone can show me a safer way to make a few hundred dollars, PLEASE show me!
Thanks for showing this Jacob,
Analysing which is the better or worse numbers to lay is interesting..
We need to triple the wager each time we lose on the 4&10 and increase it by 2.5x on the 5&9 and only 2.2x on the 6&8. It can get expensive as we progress…
To be fair for comparing lays in the calculations below the win goal for each number is the same ($20) with a 99.6% certainty of success, which translates to losing your shirt once every 243 times you try it.
To win $20 on the 4&10 with a 99.6% certainty of winning needs to go to level 5, the progression is $40, $120, $360, $1080, $3240.
To win $20 on the 5&9 with a 99.6% certainty of winning needs to go to level 6, the progression is $30, $75, $190, $475, $1190 $2975.
To win $25 on the 6&8 with a 99.6% certainty of winning needs to go to level 7, the progression is $24, $54, $120, $264, $582, $1284, $2826.
So we see the different numbers grow at different rates, the 6&8 certainly grows slower but you need more levels to reach the same 99.96% chance of success.
So let's examine the cumulative losses…
Total loss losing on the 4&10 at level 5 is $4840.
Total loss losing at level 6 on the 5&9 is $4935.
Total loss at level 7 on the 6&8 is $5152.
Clearly the 4&10 has the lowest maximum drawdown which makes the best bet compared to the others but it also accelerates the fastest into max bet territory very quickly. It's still kind of scary.
All negative progressions have a loss point that exceeds all prior wins. To make it safer you would be better to not be as aggressive in the progression and instead aim to recover losses on 2 consecutive twins.
Better yet, turn it around, play safe and only progress when you win and aim for a 2-3 win series before starting back at the initial level. Three consecutive parlayed wins on the 4&10 will net $135 less vig, flat betting or negative progressing would need 7 wins to return the same amount plus the additional bankroll risk and larger vig as you draw down. Given the same bankroll you could bet at double the level and stand to make many times as much as a negative progression without the risk of ruin and without it being a grind that can lose a lot.
I think I just described another strategy to try… wait for a point on 4, 5, 9, 10 then lay it to win $40. If 6 or 8 is the point then just wait for a 4,5,9,10 and then lay it. Parlay each win up to 3 times and return to initial bet level on 3rd win or any loss. 3 consecutive wins will make $190-$230 less $9 vig with only your first $60-$80 wager at risk.
I would like to see this at the big boy level… maybe 3000-5000 bankroll.. maybe 50 -100 lays start and progress from there…
Hi Jacob. I submitted before my chase and lay strategy. I love lots of your videos (Not a big fan of the NFL stuff) but I believe strongly in the "$300 No ten and 3 hits and down" variations.
Your videos show up on the top of my Youtube home screen and I look forward to them daily!
BUT…..
I wish you would try a video with my chase and lay method. I emailed you before but you never replied.
It works for me 95% of the time.
Laying the point but not the 6 or 8.
5 or 9 are the best. Lay $30, if a loser lay $75. If a loser again lay $225.
If 4 or 10 is the point, lay $50. If a loser bet $150. If another loss, stop playing and regroup. RARELY is there a losing session!
If you would try this strategy I think you will see it is good for a steady winning day.
I would appreciate your thoughts and input to possibly make this strategy better.
Of course the 6 and 8 could be added but you know they are almost as common as the Big Red.
Thanks and I love your channel.
Chicken Slim