Craps Tips Video Source:
We take a final look at Al Kaufman’s 444 betting system and whether or not points on or off in the come out roll effect anything.
Download John’s Sheet: https://www.dropbox.com/s/oa12uwoljpmtk85/444%20Johns.xlsx?dl=0
If you’re not sure what’s going on this is the original 444 video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk7LhxlOyrw
As always, the blog: allthejunk.com is always around.
Source: YouTube
Good Evening,
I messaged you 2 Strategy's I would like to see if you can try out and do a tutorials on. Thanks
Hi, I love watching your system critiques and have been learning a lot from watching your videos. I have a system I'd like to see critiqued by you if you're interested. I don't have a name for it and I'm new to craps so there is the chance that there is a major flaw in it. But it looks solid to me. Is there an email I can send the set up to?
also real play is less random when players are setting and trying to roll 7s on the come out roll and i have seen players roll 5-8 7s b4 making a point i have made 4 7s myself and still learning the game so far my best roll streak is 17
Arch this is one of the best methods I have ever seen I found it on a CRAPS blog ten years ago its called STREAKS give me a ring on my cell when you see it 14342515007.
Playing BOTH sides P and DP at the same time.
Play both sides at the same time increasing the wager on the side of P / DP that you have just lost a wager on and using the side that you won a wager on as a BACKUP BET.
HOW:
Start by placing 1 unit on P AND DP [at the same time] then whichever side WINS place a wager of one unit and on the side that LOST place a wager of 2 units.
If the side with 2 units wins your ahead 1 unit then place 1 unit on the winning side and go up to 2 units on the side that lost, the one that only had 1 unit on it.
If the side that had 2 units on it lost keep only 1 unit on the winning side but increase your wager on the losing side up to 3 units.
If the side that has the 3 units on it wins and the side with 1 unit loses you are ahead 1 unit, so place 1 unit on the side that won and 2 units on the side that lost.
If the side with 3 units on it loses and the side with 1 unit wins keep one unit on the side that won and increase your wager on the losing side up to 5 units.
If the side with 5 units on it wins you are up 1 unit. Place 1 unit on the winning side and increase the losing side up to 2 units.
If the side with 5 units on it loses keep 1 unit on the side that won and increase your wager up to 9 units on the losing side.
If the side with 9 units on it wins you are up 1 unit. Place 1 unit on that winning side and increase the unit on the losing side up to 2 units.
If the side with 9 units loses we STOP HERE AND TAKE OUR LOSS! We are only down 15 units NOT 31 units like we would be after 5 losses in a row if we were only playing ONE SIDE [ P or DP ] and doubling our wager after each loss.
WE ARE DOWN LESS THAN 50% of what we could be, talk about minimizing losses.
EXAMPLE: P wins then DP wins
_P____DP_
_1____1__ wager/ P wins DP loss= even
_1____2__ wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit
EXAMPLE: P wins P wins DP wins
_P____DP_
_1____1__ wager/ P wins DP lost= even
_1____2__ wager/ P wind DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3___wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit
EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins DP wins
_P____DP_
_1____1__ wager/ P wins DP lost= even
_1____2__ wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
_1____3__ wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5___wager/ P lost DP wins = plus 1 unit
EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins P wins DP wins
_P____DP__
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 7 units
__1____9____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit
EXAMPLE: P wins P wins P wins P wins P wins [ followed by a P or DP it will not make a difference -this is where we end our losing streak]
_P____DP__
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 3 units
__1____5____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 7 units
__1____9____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 15 units
END
EXAMPLE: P wins DP wins DP wins P wins P wins P wins DP wins P wins P wins DP wins.
P-DP-DP-P-P-P-DP-P-P-DP
******************************
_P____DP__
__1____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= even
__1____2____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 1 unit
__2____1____wager/ P lost DP wins= even
__3____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 2 units
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 1 unit
__1____3____wager/ P wins DP lost= minus 1 unit
__1____5____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 3 units
__2____1____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 4 units
__1____2____wager/ P wins DP lost= plus 3 units
__1____3____wager/ P lost DP wins= plus 5 units
Playing this way seems to work for every streak of P or DP 1-2-3 or 4 in a row your ahead 1 unit and for every streak of 5 or more you are down 15 units.
Let us look at what will happen in the long term [run]. When we look at the number of streaks we will get.
Streaks of P and DP :
01 in a row = plus 1 unit
02 in a row = plus 1 unit
03 in a row = plus 1 unit
04 in a row = plus 1 unit
05 in a row = minus 15 units
06 in a row = minus 15 units
07 in a row = minus 15 units
08 in a row = minus 15 units
09 in a row = minus 15 units
10 in a row = minus 15 units
amount of streaks 50% P and 50% DP
Streaks of – in a row
01__512 —– plus 512
02__256 —– plus 256
03__128 —– plus 128
04___64 —– plus 64
total for streaks 1-4 = plus 960 units
****************************************
05__32 —– 32 x minus 15 units = minus 480
06__16 —– 16 x minus 15 units = minus 240
07___8 —– 8 x minus 15 units = minus 120
08___4 —– 4 x minus 15 units = minus 60
09___2 —– 2 x minus 15 units = minus 30
10___1 —– 1 x minus 15 units = minus 15
total for streaks 5-10 = minus 945 units
***********************************************
Grand total plus 960 units – minus 945 units = plus 15 units
That seems like a lot of work just for 15 units not to talk about the time that would take, but think about this will you really bust at 15 units every time? Will the method of play really go like this win 15 units then lose 15 units lose 15 units win 15 units and break even. NO. When you bust 15 units you have to ADD the amount of units you won to get the TRUE amount of the bust. Say you won 12 units and then bust 15 units your TRUE bust is only 3 units or say you won 22 units and then bust 15 units your TRUE bust is really a win of 7 units.
So in a 50/50 game [ craps ] you have to look at what the average is in the long run and that is your average bust WILL only be 7 1/2 [ 8 ] units playing this way and your average win will be 7 1/2 [ 8 ] units. Now the great part.
Play what is called a 2-1-2-1 bankroll money management strategy along with what I have just shown you and you can not lose
A 2-1-2-1 strategy is easy what you do is break ALL your play into segments and win or lose you leave after a segment and take a break and return later to start another segment.
But here is how you play each segment.
Bankroll required
You need 30 units- each unit MUST be at least the table minimum bet [ example; at a $ 1.00 table you need $ 30.00 at a $ 5.00 table you need $150.00 ] per segment to be played also you NEED to be able to play AT LEAST 3 segments
Start segment one by playing the 1-2-3-5-9-unit progression with DOUBLE the wager progression. Play 2-4-6-10-18 with 2 units on the other side as your back-up wager. Play this way until you win 30 units or bust [ your average bust will be 50 % of segment money- 15 units ] .IF YOU WIN 30 UNITS: walk away and take a break or find another table to play at.
When you return to play this time [ your 2nd segment ] Play 1-2-3-5-9 unit progression with 1 unit as your back-up wager. IF YOU BUST : start over playing 2-4-6- 10-18 unit progression with a 2 unit back-up wager again.
EVERY TIME YOU BUST START OVER WITH THE 2-4-6-10-18 PROGRESSION WITH THE 2 UNIT BACK-UP WAGER.
EVERY TIME YOU WIN 15 UNITS ON YOUR 2ND SEGMENT START OVER PLAYING THE 2-4-6-10-18 PROGRESSION WITH A 2 UNIT BACK-UP WAGER.
So when you are playing the 2-4-6-10-18 progression your average bust will be 15 units and when you play the 1-2-3-5-9 progression your average bust will be 8 units.
LETS SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN PLAYING THIS WAY
Over ANY two segments you can either,
win and win
win and lose
lose and win
lose and lose
win and win = plus 45 units [ 30 and 15 ]
win and lose = plus 22 units [ 30 and -8 avg. ]
lose and lose = minus 30 units [ -15 avg. and -15 avg. ]
lose and win = plus 15 units [ -15 avg. and 30 ]
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM [ RUN]
Wins AND losses in a row :
[ a 50/50 game ]
EXPECTED WINS IN A ROW [ sample only to 5 ]
1. 16 W-L [ 30 – 8 avg. = 22 ]
2. 8 W-W-L [ 30/15 – 15 avg. = 30 ]
3. 4 W-W W-L [ 30/15/30 – 8 avg. = 67 ]
4. 2 W-W-W-W-L [ 30/15/30/15 – 15 avg. = 75 ]
5. 1 W-W-W-W-W-L [ 30/15/30/15/30 – 8 avg. = 112 ]
1. 16 x 22 = 352
2. 8 x 30 = 240
3. 4 x 67 = 268
4. 2 x 75 = 150
5. 1 x 112 = 112
total = 1122
EXPECTED LOSS IN A ROW [ sample only to 5 ]
1. 16 L-W [ -15 avg. and plus 30 = 15 ]
2. 8 L-L-W [ -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = 0 ]
3. 4 L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = – 15 ]
4. 2 L-L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = – 30 ]
5. 1 L-L-L-L-L-W [ -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 / -15 avg. and plus 30 = – 45
1. 16 x 15 = 240
2. 8 x 0 = 0
3. 4 x -15 = -60
4. 2 x -30 = -60
5. 1 x -45 = -45
total = 75 [ plus 240 – 0 – 60 – 60 – 45 = plus 75
So if what is expected to happen happens and it will [ over the long run with little variation swings in the short run ] YOU CAN NOT LOSE
P.S. about the bar
When playing this way the bar will have just a slight influence on your play. When the pass line has a higher wager on it when the bar is rolled on the come out treat it as a lose and increase your wager following the rules and when you win on the pass line you will BREAK EVEN not win 1 unit.
BUT if when the bar was rolled on the come out roll and you had a higher wager on it and did not get paid for the don't pass win just REPEAT the wagers on the pass and don't pass line and when you win on the don't pass line you will also break even.
I would like to know what the house edge percentage is with betting both ways on the pass line, AND the don’t pass line At The Same Time! I understand that there is only one way to lose with the Bar 12 or Bar 2 which is 1 out of 36 combinations on the dice. There is no way to win because everything else is a push/tie. I wanted to compare this answer with the straight pass line only, and the straight don’t pass line bet house edge percentage. If this answer is a dramatic difference lowering the house edge, then everyone should then bet both ways and take free/true odds on the pass line side giving as less house edge as possible and winning with true odds off the pass line only. This might be the best way to play. …. Would like to hear everyone’s comments (& possibly a video on this)! I also have another craps strategy I want to share, but I’ll do that in another comment.
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Turning the place bets "on" on the comeout roll increases the number of dice combinations that can kill the 444. With them off, you can only lose if the dice are "point 7-out x4" or "point, craps, 7-out x4" With them on, a 7 can show up much more often to cut off the progression.
johns sheet doesnt take into account when the point is hit. If the next dice roll after a hit point is another box number, it still counts it as a win….
tonight at out casino it went 7 point 7 point 7 point 7 point 3, 7, point 7. woulda lost your 6k. of course before this, it would of worked fine and you prob would of made 300-400 bucks. but once you hit the 7 streak that 400 looks pretty tiny compared to the 6k loss you gonna eat. and trust me, you will eat it. good luck