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Proper folds can be a good chunk of your winrate especially at the higher limits. In this hand called in from the Parx Casino the Hero turns a hidden set but then faces a treacherous river.
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Source: YouTube
If the hero is betting all of his flushes on the river, could the villain be betting AJ for value on the river? If he thinks that the hero is never check-raising turn with a flush draw (and check raising so small) and then checking the river when he hits his flush, and he's blocking the top two sets, I could see the villain betting AJ for value here.
I think with the small c/r on the turn this has to be a call since villain can't fold any of his QTs for that price with implied odds, and even somebody who is shot-taking will realize they have to bluff with Q-high on this river. There's also the possibility that villain can just be value-owning themselves with AJs at a decent frequency here. My math says villain should have about 9 combos of value – I assigned 6 combos of sets (since villain might check AA or JJ on flop or turn and might not always 3-bet 99) and 3 combos of flushes (partials of KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, 8d7d). I then count something like 4.5 combos of bluffs or potential value-owns – 2 of the 3 non-diamond combos of QTs, 1.5 of the 3 combos of AJs, and just assigning him 1 of the 6 combos of QdQx or KdKx. Since there's 2 combos of value for each bluff, we can profitably call down up to a pot-sized bet. Even if we remove the 1 combo of QdQx/KdKx this is still break-even.
Why cant he have KQ diamonds, C bets, and then picks up equity on the turn. J 10 diamonds, KJ diamonds
I wish the opponents at my casinos knew how to fold. In a downswing the last few weeks with players calling huge bets with low suited connectors and hitting miracle flushes and two pairs
Videos titled like this is damaging to the game. Bart just because you aren't a pro anymore doesnt mean you can ruin the game for everyone else
He didn't even bet full pot on the river and he can have the nuts. How are you possibly considering his size to be bad? lol
Asian guy, probably 60-65.
I remember hearing this on Monday and laughing my azz off because I really had 99 and that river totally fcuked me .
You got bluffed off a set sounds to me
I think you gotta check and pray lol… so true, been here so many times