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Caller gets into a sticky situation where he runs out of value on the river. Bart explains an important concept relating to the spot the Hero finds himself in.
0:00 – AQ Hand Begins
9:55 Important Tip in NL Hold’em
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Source: YouTube
The important spot here is, by checking on the river you are not giving up on the hand. It will often go check check and you win. If there is a big bet on the river, a fold is warranted, because this line not bluffed often enough, so Top Top is unlikely to be good.
The caller bet 105 on the flop, and Bart says that he would use something like 150-160, which is still less than half pot. I'm thinking that something more like 3/5ths or 2/3rds pot and betting 200-240 would be better.
If two of your opponents limp-called preflop, and the third player just called your bet preflop with four limpers left to act, I'd expect them all to have a very wide range preflop, and therefore, I would expect them to not be folding a gutshot or a 9 to a larger bet like 200-240. While I think QQ and 99 are out of our opponents ranges, it does put Q9 in our opponents range (but we do block that slightly). But there are also so many hands with a gut shot, a queen, a 9, or a flush draw that I think are calling a 200-240 bet.
Because I think that all three opponents have very wide ranges preflop, I think that you can bet larger on the flop. Against players with a tight range, I could see betting smaller. Or on a board without a flush draw and without as many straight draws, I could see betting smaller. Or on a board where middle pair is much weaker like a 5 instead of a 9 (because 55 is a much larger possibility than 99, because a 5 might fold to a 3/5ths pot bet, whereas a 9 is more likely to call a 3/5ths pot bet, and because far more hands with a 9 will limp in than hands with a 5 will limp in), I could see betting smaller. But on Q-9-3 with two hearts and against three opponents that I think all have wide ranges, I think that you should be betting more than half pot.
Bart, i know u dont want us to mix it up so much in low stakes live poker.
So, we should not have any combination on our check/call range?
The main takeaway from this HH is the hero bet sizing. I don't know what the logic of betting small on the flop then also on the turn. The flop especially with our exact hand please almost too perfectly as a big bet here. Great value hand that needs protection. Then the turn bet also he could've sized it to where he geometrically gets all the money in on the river with an SPR that villain has to stack off with a big portion of his hands
What I like best about your approach Bart, is that you try to make your audience think long term. Many low stakes players have tendencies to be afraid in making the "wrong" fold, so they end up calling too much and lose money overall. We MUST get bluffed in some spots sometimes so we can be big winners in the long run. Another thing is, we can make all the exploitable folds we want, NO ONE can see what we're folding and when. People in live poker under bluff, that's just reality. (I was a reg in the 10/20+ Bellagio games, so that is my own experience)
Good job Bart.
I think a line which would be really nice in this spot is a XR on the flop….. It's hard to get the money in over 3 streets against worst hands and if we x oop with 3 players behind it's not like players won't be betting a hand like QJ QT or flush draws when checked to. So we can go for the XR and jam for an under pot size pot on a ton of turns. We also block calling range on the flop so betting here OOp feels idk
I like 200 on flop bet.
Why wouldnt we bet/fold 200 otr? I think we can get called by JT KQ QT or random Q-rag
So what happened? Did it go check check and he was good. Do we know what was calling him down?
I hope I get good enough to be worthy of getting in a call on the show.