10 thoughts on “Is This EVER A BLUFF Against Ashley Sleeth?! [Poker Tournament STRATEGY]”

1. What would YOU do on the river with 9♥ 7♥?

   Your Stack (CO): 151,000
   
   Their Stack (BB): 115,000

   Pot: 16,000
   
   Board: 8♣ 5♣ 4♥ 8♥ Q♥

   BB bets 5,000, You raise to 20,000, BB raises to 115,000 (all-in)

   A) Call
   
   B) Fold

2. Worse hand to call… Nut flush… but I'm not loving it.

3. To add to the "german" thing, I think it matters someone from Germany went all the way to the US to play in a tournament.

4. I think it's a good bad fold.

   1) V defended from BB to a min raise from late position, so I'm already eliminating any pocket pair from his range, so a boat is narrowed to Q8 only. A suited Ax out of position for "one of those good German pros" is also driving a 3-bet (yes, even Ah2h), so eliminate the nut flush too — same for KhJh, Kh10h, and Jh10h.
   2) That flop is soaking wet, so V checking does not scream a made hand; even Ah5x or Ah6x is leading the flop (usually). There is a check-raising range, but because of the two clubs, it should be pretty narrow, i.e. straight or 5x4x.
   3) From the V's perspective, H has shown a lot of weakness throughout. The min raise pre lacks confidence at this level. The check back on the flop confirms H missed. Even the river raise looks more like H is trying to steal the pot with a Q, as oppose to waking up with the backdoor flush. The river lead is a little sus, but it still begs for thin value — maybe 66 like Ashley mentioned, or even as high as trips. V should not be afraid of a flush or boat as played.
   4) Unfortunately, we don't get to see the bet pacing, so no live tells on the river, but assuming V is calculated, he is likely either overly confident with trips or bluff jamming with blockers, e.g. AhXo, 9c7c, 9x6h, QcXh, etc.
   5) Of course, it's still possible that V woke up with 10h2h through Kh6h, but even those hands would be an overplay with a river 3-bet.

   In conclusion, V has plenty more combos of losing hands, and it just really feels like V was trying to take advantage of H's displayed weaknesses. I think she was winning, but I'm not making that call either while out of the money. He can have my 14.5bb; I'll get them back later. Final table, I call all day though.

5. The bet itself is suspicious, going from 5k to reraising to 100k+. Just like bet speed is a notable tell, so should be bet sizing..

6. I think he has ace hearts 8 diamond

7. You asked the right question… "what's the worse hand you would call an all-in with?"… If villain asks himself the same question and the answer is "nut-flush", and he has the blocker (Ah), his all in bet makes complete sense. He knows she doesn't have a boat and she can't call.

   In hindsight, I disagree with two things she did. First, Villian has Ah-X in his range, therefore he did have a bluff and could have played it exactly as he did (check flop, small turn bet, small river) thinking he had the best hand, at least to the river.

   Second… I'm just calling the river, rather than going for value. If she had paused to think if she might fold to an all-in reraise before going for value, she would have just called as well.

   All that said, as the hand played out, I agree it's a good disciplined fold.

   This hand is a perfect example of what makes poker such a great game.

8. How long does he take when moving all in … 5 seconds after her raise ? Also I know it's silly but I look at the players hands when pushing chips forward (old school tells)

9. Ah 8x, 5x, or 4x are bluffing candidates, I think. Also, I would have just called the river. What raises would the player call with that doesn't beat her. Maybe a naked 8, or a smaller flush draw. Seems like a small range of hands to me. The villain's betting pattern appears too polarized for me to make a raise here on the river.

10. That was her pot. Reckon he put her on a Qx and he had an 8 so jammed it in when she 3bet. Doubt he put her on a flush, just thought she was trying to steal with a queen

Comments are closed.