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Today’s #HelloAlec episode is about Multi Table Tournament Strategy. My reader Maicon from Brazil played this hand with Ace Six off in the under the gun and he wants to know should he call villain’s raise on the turn on the first place. What do you think about all in from our hero on the river? Your analysis?
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Simply, you have no fold equity on the river shove. He has to call 155,000 to win 838,000. Villain is getting a little under 5:1 on a call and invested a vast majority of his stack already and you have to recognize that he's simply never folding with any part of the board. Might be a decent card to bluff, since you have the nut flush blocker, but multiway would you really check a set on the flop? Really hard for you to have any of what you're representing, as you probably would and should bet all sets/nut flush draws on the flop and if Villain is a decent player, he probably knows this. No fold equity, not representing many hands and decent players will probably sniff this bluff out most of the time
Preflop: Fold. Raising isn't horrible, but I'd rather not get involved when I still have a decent stack; 47 bb means there's still a lot of play to go.
Flop: Just bet. I know this isn't great for your hand, but I also don't think you're getting raised a ton on this board, either. And if you do get raised, you have A hi. You bet 35k, someone raises, you fold and have 41 bb left. No big deal.
Turn: I don't understand the bet. A hi stands to be the best hand sometimes. Maybe you get value from the Kh? Are you bluffing? I'm not sure. It's probably okay to call the raise getting 3.46:1 w/ the NFD and 2 potential sources of IO, but it feels really spewy.
River: I'd call before I considered shoving, but I think folding is best. I think 99/QQ from villain 3 bets pre, and I'm not sure he check raises 97 against a bet and a call (though he might), so I think his range here is not a lot of FH/Quads (1 77, 3 22, 3 Q7s = 7), a whole lot of flushes, and some random airball like Th8x. Your shove gives him 5.39:1 on a call, and given your line, he's not going to fold anything of value. The only hands he folds…you beat anyway. Yes, regs are capable of making big folds in spots where it's not profitable to call even despite the relative hand strength and pot odds, but you're already repping so narrow. You really checked QQ or a flopped set on the flop? You declined to bet the NFD? Even if your line looks like some sort of bad slowplay, it's just not believable enough to justify a fold from villain at the price he's getting.
if you put him on a flush how is he ever folding when your shove is less than 2x his bet and there are no more cards to come? this is a terrible move. If I bet 190k on the river and you shove for 450 I am calling you even if all I have is top pair. I think your only move here is fold.
OR 4 bet all in on turn. but preferably just fold the river.
Really bad. You can't have a set as it checked round on a flop-flush-draw board. From there you are crushed and even if you're not you should still fold. You got "giddy" and lost all balance.
Might have worked if he didnt have that hand…
hes pot commited he is not folding a flush for 140000 more
i'd smallish cbet the flop, not likely they'd peel with something that'd connect to that low board. And it's hard to continue with random overs OOP. Turn call and river shove are terrible imo
Calling the turn raise is fine. Even though we are of course hoping for folds, and certainly not for a raise. But we still have the pot odds and implied odds to call. Or at least its so close, its not really a mistake. The river though is really spewy in my opinion. This is where, we burn up the vast majority of chips and in fact our whole tournament life. Which makes the play even worse. We called the turn, because we were hoping to river the nut flush. We didnt. So just fold and move on to the next spot. I am sorry to be so rude about it, but how difficult can that be? This is a clear example of outplaying yourself by making the game much more complicated, than you should.
Villain only has to call 155 on the river into a pot of 838. They are getting 5.4:1. They are only going to fold a stone cold bluff. You can only beat air. The 190 was almost 1/2 villains stack. Villain is pot committed – they are not going away. If villain had air they could have checked or pushed. Villain had the 2nd nut flush only losing to two hands getting 5.4:1. If you had a 7 you would have c bet the flop. Really if you were villain you would folded in that spot? As far as calling the turn you only have A high and and a flush draw. If you hit a heart and stacked villain then you are getting odds to call. But you did not hit a heart and fired at a villain that was already pot committed.