10 thoughts on “Poker Strategy: A 3x Pot Overbet On the River”

1. Meh, fold and look for a better spot.

2. This dude wears a bowtie at the table

3. I've never thought about shipping $200 into $60 before. I cant wait to try doing it soon.

4. The math is mdf = 140/340 (the amount you put in to call over the amount in the pot after you call), which is about 40%, so if you think you only need to call 20% of the time, that's way off. Overbets theoretically increase your e.v. when your opponents range is capped, because you can balance your range with a greater pct. of bluffs. (I know this doesn't matter a lot here, but knowing you should be calling 40% of the time vs. 20%, makes it easier to call with a hand like two pair).

5. I think, this river decision is pretty close and very read dependent. If Villain is a nit, I would let him have it, but otherwise I would lean towards calling, because aces up is a pretty darn strong hand in a BTN vs. BB pot. If he have JT and got there on the river, it bad to be us, but he is basically just a luck box, not only to get there, but also to pick the perfect bet size against the exact hand, we have. We will also have a lot of other AX hands here, and he can forget to get paid by those, when he goes this big.

6. I play a lot at this level – and often such a big bet is just a bluff. People really try to get paid if they have J10. But, I'm known for over calling, so players that know me, tend to bomb rivers, which has lead to me really over folding rivers now. My read would be "is this guy capable of trying to shove me off a pot where I showed weakness – given what he knows about ME as well as what I know about him". Two pair – aces up – is disguised strength and the guy could be value betting a lot of hands we beat – as well as J10. But 200 is NOT a value bet. Its either "I think you are going to donk off $200 on Ax to my straight" or its "I think you are not capable of calling $200 here". He's saying one of the two. Turns 2 pair into a hero call. At the end of the day, I don't wind up with much better here – and I will likely call.

7. id be really interested to see if Bart would be able to hold his own in mid/high stakes online. It probably wouldnt be worth his time but it would be really awesome to see if he could be a top top pro

8. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that low stakes live games are full of guys who have developed street sense strategies that are profitable against other guys. They may actually be winning players. If 20% of the table are real players and the other 80% are donkeys and fish, an guy exploit strategy could be profitable.

   To prevent this type of hand from happening, I would always cbet this KQ6 rainbow flop against an aggro guy in the BB because they're defending so wide. Even bad players usually have some sense of positional advantage. If he check calls, I'll re-evaluate on turn. An aggro guy will likely interpret the check back on that KQ6 rainbow flop as weakness and get stupid ideas that might put you in a tough spot on the river like this. We have to call that river and most of the time it's a bluff, but when he turns over something like a higher two-pair it's tilting. Who needs that stress?

   I would cbet the flop and barrel the turn cause pairing the 5 has no showdown value but I do pick up more equity. I he calls on the turn, do you think the aggro guy will 3x pot donk bet the river? Nope.

9. If it's an semi-guy he could have 65o also

10. Very interesting hand!

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