10 thoughts on “Poker Strategy: Can We Fold Trips Top Kicker?”

1. Great hand.
   Great analysis by Bart.
   What do you think about checking back turn and then calling almost any bet on the river (or value-betting strong if checked to)?

2. I think betting turn here is the biggest mistake in this hand. When we bet, it’s hard to get called 2 streets by worst, we might even fold out a nit players 9, 44-88 from standard players (i would fold 44-88 on the turn). If we check turn, we can always value bet on river and get called more often. There is no draw on the flop we need to protect our hand against other than the 45 straight draw which we block 1/8 outs so I dont mind giving that hand a free card as they could also decided to bluff with that hand on the river with just 5 high.

   As played, we are beating only 2 combos of 10J and QJ suited that might float this flop as Bart mentioned. We lose to 22, 33, and also 99. A player that will open limp (which i think is bad) is bad enough to limp 99 utg fearing a 3bet if they get re raised. Also, how often is someone floating OOP multiway with QJ or J10 suited with bd flushes? Remember the OR raiser is still in the hand when the UTG calls, the OR can definitely check flop with 99 or an over pair like AA on such a dry board. So i don’t think utg is floating that often or at all with qj, 10j. I would reduce it to only 1 combo. These hands would also might not bomb overbet pot on river if they got to this river this way as we can easily have boats such as 33 22 99 J9 ourselves.

   With the above points, I would nit fold the river. However, I would always check back this turn and would never arrive at this river in this tough spot

3. Lol this is why poker is still alive.. It's annoying to fold AJ in this spot but it's a clear and relatively simple fold in a live setting against a guy that hasn't gotten out of line once in 2 hours. A donk overbet on the river is always the relative nuts in a low stakes live setting against a str8 forward player. Could he be calling flop and turn with j10, qj, kj of hearts? Sure..Would he ever donk overbet on the river with these hands, Never…Villian (based on information given) always has 99,33 or 22 here.

4. What's interesting about this hand is from the villain's perspective I would see the hero have a J9 or 99 there a lot of the time. When he bets the flop into 3 players and then continues on the turn he basically says the Jack doesn't worry him. Would he be betting let's say A9 like that? I don't think so, at least I would check my second pair there, nothing worse calls my A9 there. So I would have never lead the river even with my 33 because just so many average live players are going to have a monster there.

5. Bart you are such an intelligent and methodical thinker. There’s so much I’ve been learning from listening to you and how you justify each action on every street. Thank you for your hard work and in helping the community.

6. I play $1/3 and im considering quitting my job to play poker. I want a 50x bankroll starting at 10k so that means i can buy in for $200. With a maximum of 2 buy ins per session. Is this wise or are there any adjustments I should make before i make the move? Let me know your opinion. Also in 2016 I averaged $15/hr over 360 hrs and in 2017 I averaged $22/hr over 385 hrs. Let me know your opinion , monthly expenses including savings are 2,000

7. This would trigger my snap fold response in the east coast and Las Vegas. It's not spazz from the player type description and it's not worse value. And this is why I lose in LA

8. This is just really badly played by Hero. We were value betting the turn, and our hand got even stronger on the river. But now we want to fold, just because our opponent suddenly lead into us??? Yes it was an overbet, but if Villain was sandbagging a set and decided to lead the river, its because, he is scared, Hero will check behind with a marginal hand like a 9. Which as the hand played out is probably Heros most likely holding. Remember that Hero bet the flop in a multiway pot, so he have way more 9´s in his range than J´s.

   But when Villain overbet, Hero will just fold a marginal hand like a 9, so whats the point in doing this for value, if Villain was a thinking player? If he wanted value from a 9, it would be much better to lead for something like half pot rather than overbet. So I will say, that 90% of the time, this was either a bluff or an accidental value bluff with another J. After all the name donk bet comes from the fact, that when bad players make a good hand like trips, they tend to just lead not thinking about, what their lead really does, or if leading is the best way to get paid.

9. My 2¢ here is hero took stab at pot OTF, got called by OOP PF limper. He has SOMETHING. He isn't floating JT/QJ/KJ suited or unsuited. Those hands wiffed and get tossed. When hero makes TP/TK on turn, his hand has value, but not enough for 3 streets. A check here is best. If he's ahead, its unlikely the river will change, if he's behind, he's WAY behind. That line makes calling river easier, even if its a crying call/bluff catcher. Folding here is simply folding too high on your range. He says it in the analysis, you have to call some hands, and if you aren't calling trips w/ TK, then what are you calling? Check turn. Call river.

10. I think it’s a fold, mainly from an exploitative view.
    I don’t see this line ever played out where villain has a bluff(5% chance he has 45c, but that’s it); also I never see him having a jack here either. I can’t see him floating when there was still another player left to act after him on the flop.
    Tough spot nonetheless, at higher stakes Bart is probably right in saying this is a call.

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