Poker Strategy Info And Source:
In this hand we flop top and bottom and face a huge overbet shove on the turn, whats the play?
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Source: YouTube
I just love how these callers keep contradicting themselves in their analyses when Bart tries to make some sense out of their decisions, :D.
1st!!!!
lol paused at 4:24 . ummm with a full bankroll this is a call for me. I don't love it but I'm calling. As it is for me atm playing full rec and poker being mixed w/ expenses the limited times a year I currently play; Im just gonna roll my eyes and fold.
Ok so at 2:45 you say the small blind is who you want to isolate he over plays top pair and is trying to give his money away. So why did you fold? What low stakes player has a value hand first to act 5 way and doesn’t put in a check raise on the flop. Not to mention you block AJ and pocket 8s so he has almost no value hands. Then he does exactly what you thought he would do and overplays his hand. So if you knew this and thought about it for 5 minutes there’s only one conclusion here and that’s you are playing scared money and not properly rolled
Way to many draws to fold,very well analyzed by Bart.there are just as many draws as value hands if not more and he named pretty much all of them.im never folding for 1.5 to 1 in a spot where you described the villain as “over valuing 1 pair hands”
These aggro fishes sometimes will mess a TAG like you. I've folded my ATss sb against a reshove by KTo…I folded KQo on btn against a reraise by bb w K5o thinking he might have a set on dry board.
It just comes down to the less time you analyse a hand, the better decision you Wil make.
Just look at the classic Johnny lodden hand vs Mateos how many mins he has tanked and finally folded the better hand…
He could have a draw or A8, gotta call.
My first thought was an overplay of A3 especially since you had mentioned that he over plays his top pairs….i am never folding in this spot at this level when i have seen the player over play single pair hands and i can almost completely eliminate strong hands on the flop as he did not raise….at this level i would say that people raise their sets and top 2 pairs almost 90% of the time on this board texture especially with so many players involved in the hand. I have seen it many times when a player over values a weak 2 pair hand and raises some crazy amount because they are afraid to be out drawn and the 2 diamonds being present as well as many straight draws and possible better 2 pairs hitting on the river induces players to make this kind of move.
This hand is a prime example of the old truth, that to beat a poker player you should think one level higher than him but not multible levels higher. I think even Bert got caught up in this in his analysis of the hand. When I face a donk bet (lead into the previous street aggressor) on the turn or river, the first thing, I ask, is which hands improved on this card to something, which Villain might now want to valuebet? In this case the answer is 33, A3, J3, 83.
33 is very unlikely, because it would have folded on the flop. J3 and 83 is also unlikely, because unless Villain is really bad, he would have folded them preflop. But A3 makes sense. So Villains value range is A3, and thats pretty much it. And I am not saying this, because I watched the entire video and know the result. As soon as I saw the turn card and the action, A3 was the first hand, that came to my mind.
Then you ask, could he be bluffing? And to be honest, I think in this case the answer is probably no, or at least not very often. 4 players saw the turn, the turn card was not scary at all, and its extremely likely, that one if not more players have an A. Even worse there was a shortstack involved, who was not facing a overbet on the turn. So he can call with a lot of hands, and then Villain still have to beat him at showdown, even when he get the other two guys to fold.
So I think, this whole discussion about him bluffing with AX of diamonds is a complete waste of time. First I dont think, even a good player would do it because of the shortstack involved. And I also dont think, a good player would choose this line. He would rather check-raise the turn instead. Which by the way a good player would also do for value with a set or AJ. He would not donk-shove the turn for 3 X the pot on a complete blank.
And honestly this dude is just not thinking on that level. If he was bluffing, it was not, because he had an ace blocker and equity when called. It would be because, he just decided to randomly go for it, because he thought, it was fun. And his reason for going all in with A3 was equally simple. He turned two pair, and two pair is a good hand, so he shipped it.
He was not thinking about, what his opponents had, how they would react, and perhaps not even the size of his bet relative to the pot. And actually this is exactly why, its called a donk bet. Its because bad players do it, when they are exited about there hand, and usually its not the best way to get paid.
Man this is great stuff.