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ABOUT THE EPISODE:
On today’s show, Preston and Stig talk to Annie Duke about the cognitive biases that people have when determining the probabilities of their decision making. Duke is the best selling author of the book, Thinking In Bets, and she’s also a World Champion poker player.
Source: YouTube
Fantastic interview
Couldn’t help but draw parallels to playing poker and to investing or trading in the stock market which are both, a game of skill as well as luck. The intrinsic value of a company’s could suggest that it is undervalued, but the price of the stock can still continue falling. Now Buffet, and other fantastic investors know this and instead, play the long game knowing that over time, buying undervalued stocks is the right decision even if within the moment, the result might not seem like it.
Another point touched on that made me smile was that the same principle of creating a circle of friends who will challenge your decisions, is the same principle that Ray Dalio uses within his company at Bridgewater Associates. I think he calls it “radical transparency through radical truth” or something of that kind.
This interview just affirms my belief that, when chance is involved through any means, the outcomes should never be relied on as 100% accurate but instead, should be looked at through probabilities, I.E if I did the same thing, over and over again, which outcomes would continue to appear and what are the probabilities of these outcomes going to be over a series of decisions.
Wonderful insight
Wow awesome