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For the first time EVER I’m mixing in some poker simulation work into my hand history analysis. Not only do we go over the equilibrium play for this 3bet BU vs CO hand I played at 100nl, but we also use consider some deviations that might be better for exploiting the 100nl player pool moving forward in the future.
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What would you do if the ace of spades came
Leigh are you sure you've run your sim correctly? I've just ran my own sim to look at this spot and the oop is not donking. Adding a donking strategy only adds 0.004 ev, which is negligible. I don't use GTO+ so not sure how it's setup, but if you give the solver sizes to use, it will create a completely balanced strategy using all those sizes. The only way to know if that strategy is good, is to compare the overall EVs of the players with those strats. I didn't see any EV comparisons here.
Also consider it just from a logical point of view. Leading happens on boards where one player has an ev/equity advantage. But on 942fd BTN has all the same strong hands (should be mixing 22, 44 at low freq) and all the over pairs. Leading would be suicide oop. A board where you'll see leading is like 456fd BB vs UTG. A big red flag is the turn lead. There are very rarely turn leads after the solver takes a x/c line unless the card is very clearly better for one player. 7h is a completely neutral card, it should complete virtually no hands aside from 77, so the fact it shows up as a lead in your sim should tip you off that something is wrong.
The river lead in 3! pot is pretty common on flush completing cards, but you'll need to resolve to the base in order to get an accurate river result.
Overall, half pot is a good size on this flop. I'd get some updated ranges, your 3! range is very very tight and will skew your results. Turn probably want to 60% pot, set up a nicer river jam. Glad to see you're getting into some more solver work!
Can you nodelock with GTO+? I would recommend doing it otherwise it messes up the frequencies that arrive at the river. Also could you give it an overbetting size on the flop and turn? Overbets are important when you play 120+ bb deep.
I would love for this to become a staple in video. I understand doing it (especially if you are nodelocking frequencies) for every hand is tedious. Doing it for 1 or 2 hands every vlog would be amazing.
I stand corrected, I remember on IG, I discussed using a smaller sizing so we could get called wider. Between you and the solver there is a lot of merit to the larger sizing. Think this was a great hand to take a deeper dive into!